Triads – the story so far this winter

As the winter presses on, we’re taking a look at how the Triad season is shaping up so far in this week’s Market Pulse.

Triads are the 3x highest transmission system demand periods (net of embedded generation). These are important sources of revenue for some embedded generators, to learn more see our recent blog.

To date, the two highest demand periods for this triad season have been 4th Nov at 5pm (41,197 MW) and 16th Nov also at 5pm (39,150 MW).

NOTE: These numbers are taken from ELEXON, who use settlement metering from the SAA, which may differ marginally from the Statement of Use of System Charging Methodology (chapter 4).

What do both these days have in common?

Interesting, the answer is not that much.

Here is a quick comparison of both days:

We are too early in the triad season to conclude much from this data. However, there are some interesting early points of note. You can see from the data above that on the 4th we had both low wind and temperatures: ripe conditions for a triad as low temperatures increase demand and the low winds also stop demand being netted off from embedded generation.

Demand on the 16th was quite a bit lower with higher temperatures, higher wind and the National Lockdown dampening demand. We expect the demand on the 16th to be surpassed as we continue into winter, but only time will tell whether that forecast proves to be accurate.

Looking ahead what does next week hold for us?

Wind generation is forecast to be higher, as is nuclear and CCGT availability, with demand potentially flat on last week. This means that there is less uncertainty in the generation stack and with plant availability therefore we expect DA volatility to be lower as a result. However, interconnector flows and plant trips have a major impact to play when you get closer to delivery, both of which are notoriously challenging to predict. That is why we have a 24/7 trading team to monitor any changes in the market on a real-time basis for the benefit of our customers.

View the Market Pulse Dashboard here.

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