Triad season is here

Everything you need to know

With tight market conditions predicted this coming winter, flexible generation will play a key role in helping National Grid keep the lights on for homes and businesses. The current challenging market conditions are being driven by both high gas and carbon prices (two key commodities that underpin the wholesale power price) and unplanned outages, such as a continental interconnector fire, leaving the country dependant on traditional, expensive and less sustainable generation sources. Our team of experts have prepared this article as a guide for what to expect during ‘tight’ market occurrences, and what Limejump has prepared for our generation customers who may be eligible for Triad payments.

What are Triads?

Triads are the three half-hour settlement periods that achieve the highest system demand between November and February, separated by at least ten days. National Grid uses these specific Triad days to determine TNUoS charges for customers with half-hourly metering (typically large or medium industrial and commercial customers and smaller generators). It is costly for sites to consume electricity during a Triad period.

When do Triads occur?

Triads typically occur during the winter evening peak, between 16.30 and 18.30, when industrial demand coincides with residential energy and lighting requirements. National Grid does not indicate Triads in advance, these are finalised once all settlement data is available after the triad season is over.

However, with our tech-led analytical forecasting ability, we can provide alerts for our customers when these price critical times may occur. Despite these technological tools, it is not possible to define precisely when a Triad has taken place until the end of February (i.e. when peak winter is officially over). At this time, National Grid will publish their report on these Triad dates which will indicate the action taken by Limejump on behalf of our customers.

How we forecast Triad events and alert our customers

Limejump provides stochastic forecasting and alerts at times of a potential Triad period to all of our customers. Our model provides an initial probability of any given day featuring a Triad scenario and a broader probability window of a Triad occurring. Our team will communicate a critical alert window within this probability window, which will reflect the one hour that a Triad may take place and the probability of a Triad event in the form of a severity classification – High, Medium and Low.

While these forecast and alerts are not guaranteed to identify all Triad events, and we take no responsibility for missed Triads, our team has developed a system to provide customers with the best available information, enabling them to react as they see fit. Last year our team successfully and accurately forecasted all three Triads.

Our alerts process

If Limejump are predicting a potential Triad we will issue a low, medium or high alert to our customers in the morning. 

A second alert may be issued closer to the delivery window, typically mid-afternoon if there are any deviations from the initial forecast. Customers may receive further Triad alerts if Limejump receive regular market forecast updates when a Critical Triad Window may change.

What are the Triad prices this year?

Generally, we continue to see a scaling down of payments to small generators exporting over the Triad period, with the exception of South Wales and Southwestern networks, which saw an increase on the prior year.  There continues to be no payment for the northern regions, with North Wales and Mersey falling into this category this year.

Here to help!

For the latest Triad information, Limejump customers can contact our customer services team by email, phone or via our Live Chat within the Limejump portal.If you are interested in how our Triad services could aid your business’ energy interaction or costs, get in touch with our team at info@limejump.com.