• The weather hasn’t all been snow and ice in recent weeks. A particularly blustery weekend (13th February) led to a new UK grid record for wind generation. Overall, a hefty 14.6 GW of transmission connected wind was generated on the UK power grid on Saturday. Maximum wind generation (GW) by day The ongoing need for flex This isn’t a one off. We’ll see more and more of these records fall with increasing renewable generation connecting. Hence, it becomes more important than ever for National Grid to have access to flexibility. Be that batteries capturing excess supply or even wind in the BM providing downwards flex in times of low demand (e.g. Summer 2020). Limejump optimises both these asset classes and we expect much more flexibility will be needed in the future. This is something which Limejump, and our clients, will be on standby to provide as we play our role in supporting National Grid’s ambition of carbon free operation of the grid by 2025. How are things shaping up for next week? We expect high levels of wind over the weekend with forecasts suggesting levels well above seasonal normals. We will see a drop off in nuclear power with Heysham (500MW), Hartlepool (600MW) and

  • Since the start of January, Limejump, part of Shell’s Renewables & Energy Solutions division, has added more than 200 renewable generators to its Virtual Power Platform (VPP) through Power Purchase Agreements. Limejump has increased the number of renewable sites that it manages in the UK by 40%. These new sites have overwhelmingly been wind and solar and have added 170MW of renewables capacity to Limejump’s award-winning VPP. Limejump manages one of the largest VPPs in the UK, with over 1GW of renewable capacity, demonstrating its continued leadership in the UK energy tech trading arena and helping to accelerate the UK’s energy transition. As well as wind and solar, Limejump’s VPP also hosts a sizeable portfolio of hydro, anaerobic digesters and batteries. Catherine Newman, Limejump’s Chief Executive said: “We’ve had a terrific response from the market in recent weeks, a time when the power market has been so volatile. Customers are choosing Limejump because our intelligent forecasting and data-driven platform successfully maximises revenues from their generation assets.” Since the start of the year, well below average temperatures in the UK (and Asia) have resulted in a volatile prompt and forward power market. Genna Boyle, Limejump’s Head of Business Development said: “Forward markets were extremely volatile,

  • Both prompt markets and on the curve, we have seen real ups and down. The prompt: unseasonably low wind and record spikes Cold weather and low renewables have been driving the prompt markets. Over the past few weeks we’ve seen a few instances where wind generation was <2 GW, almost 10 GW less than the usual seasonal average of 11 GW This very low wind generation, coupled with shiveringly low temperatures, meant National Grid had to issue several margin notifications (Electricity Margin Notification 6th Jan, Electricity Capacity Market Notice 8th Jan). See our previous blog here highlighting the differences. These types of alerts are issued by to request more electricity supply over a certain period, due to a forecast shortage of supply. Alongside tight supply/demand conditions we have seen exceptional circumstances materialise in the Day Ahead markets. There are two factors driving this: Tight market conditions Brexit and subsequent market decoupling The chart above shows day ahead prices (APX) prices and we can see the prices spiked several times over the first 2 weeks. The spike on the 13th is a record level at £1499/MWh. These high prices led to more inefficient (and hence more expensive) generators being called upon to provide MWs to the grid,

  • The work of Limejump has once more been recognised at the annual S&P Platts Global Energy Awards.  At last night’s award ceremony, held virtually, Limejump was highly-commended in three categories: Commercial Technology of the Year, Deal of the Year (Strategic) and the Individual Rising Star - Limejump’s Head of Business Development, Genna Boyle. Catherine Newman, Chief Executive Officer at Limejump: “Recognition at last night’s awards caps another great year for Limejump, despite the challenges of the pandemic. We have invested in our team and developed our capabilities to take full advantage of the business opportunities that exist within the clean energy landscape. For Genna Boyle to be acknowledged as one of the industry’s rising stars is very welcome; she is emerging as a true leader in the field.” “Being shortlisted in the S&P Platts Global Energy Awards underlines the commercial acumen that we offer to our clients, the career advancement of our people and our advancement of technology, data science and innovation to accelerate the UK’s energy transition.  With the active support of Shell, our parent company, we intend to remain at the forefront of change and development within the UK energy market.” Limejump was highly commended in the following award categories: Commercial Technology

  • Latest forecasts are predicting unseasonably low wind generation on Monday and Tuesday next week (7th & 8th December). The chart below shows the embedded wind forecast for the next 12 days, with this unseasonable dip showing clearly. For reference, this assumes there is 6.5 GW embedded wind capacity, so for generation to only be 250 MW over the evening peak is very significant and rare.   Coupled with this, we see very low temperatures with this forecast. This includes the possibility of snow in some areas of the UK next week – on top of this Friday’s flurries. So, to summarise it is the perfect (snow) storm. Why do the prices increase? Prices for Monday traded up to £110/MWh baseload in the OTC market. It’s worth noting that  December-20 baseload power was actually trading at £49/MWh prior to the start of the month. Of course, it’s not uncommon to see more volatility in prompt power markets. This is driven by plant availability, temperature and varying renewable generation. This prompt volatility is one of the main ways that flexible assets capture value. Next week, with reduced supply due to low wind generation coupled with increased demand we are seeing prices rise as less efficient generation is in merit. Prices rise as

  • As the winter presses on, we’re taking a look at how the Triad season is shaping up so far in this week’s Market Pulse. Triads are the 3x highest transmission system demand periods (net of embedded generation). These are important sources of revenue for some embedded generators, to learn more see our recent blog. To date, the two highest demand periods for this triad season have been 4th Nov at 5pm (41,197 MW) and 16th Nov also at 5pm (39,150 MW). NOTE: These numbers are taken from ELEXON, who use settlement metering from the SAA, which may differ marginally from the Statement of Use of System Charging Methodology (chapter 4). What do both these days have in common? Interesting, the answer is not that much. Here is a quick comparison of both days: We are too early in the triad season to conclude much from this data. However, there are some interesting early points of note. You can see from the data above that on the 4th we had both low wind and temperatures: ripe conditions for a triad as low temperatures increase demand and the low winds also stop demand being netted off from embedded generation. Demand on the 16th was quite a bit lower with higher

  • We welcome the commitment from the Prime Minister and his Government to set the Green Revolution agenda to deliver net zero and 'build back better'. We are glad to see the Government is throwing its weight behind sustainable energy and transport. The Government has stated that by 2030 all new cars and vans will be electric or hybrid vehicles (till 2035), supported by the required EV charging infrastructure. Limejump is a UK leader in battery storage and we are excited to see more batteries join the Grid through electric vehicles. The Government stated that it wants the UK to have enough offshore wind capacity to power every home in the UK. Increasing wind generation underscores the requirement for flexible generation and storage when it is not windy. Limejump wants to see further support for distributed onshore renewables alongside offshore wind; this should allow for a more resilient Grid that is less exposed to weather patterns and transmission constraints. Limejump is a strong supporter of evolving technologies and are excited to see what the Government's £500m investment in hydrogen will deliver. Hydrogen technology could be a key lever for the UK to decarbonise the energy sector more quickly. This 10 Point Plan is a starting point

  • Over forecasting and under delivering may be a thing of the past for suppliers with the help of AI and machine learning Rain or shine, weather is a constant topic of conversation. Whether we’re eager for predictions of a sunny weekend to be spot on, or hoping that forecasted rain never comes, it’s fair to say that weather forecasts have an impact on our lives and behaviour. Nowhere is this more true than in the renewable energy sector, where accurate forecasting has an important role to play. Many forms of renewable energy are reliant on particular weather conditions, so being able to predict these, and therefore production levels, is vital. At the moment, renewable energy sources make up around 26% of the world’s electricity, but this share is expected to grow to 30% by 2024 and global supply of renewable electricity could expand by up to 50% in the next five years. As we become increasingly reliant on renewable power, forecasting becomes only more important in predicting supply and therefore balancing demand. Failure to forecast production accurately can lead to unusual spikes and dips in price for suppliers and so these are carefully tracked using forecast accuracy metrics which allow system operators to

  • Brexit Update As you know we are due to leave the EU on the 1 January 2021 and it stands this is likely to be without reaching a deal. So, what does this all mean for the power market? Trading on the interconnectors with Europe is currently ‘coupled’ which means that transnational electricity trading and the necessary transport capacities are connected via so called implicit auctions. This ensures the most efficient use of interconnectors as energy flows to the country with the highest price. When GB leaves the EU, these markets will become de-coupled so electricity and capacity will be traded separately. This is likely to lead to more volatile market prices and opportunities to sell when prices are high. On 20 October one of the Power Exchanges, Nord Pool, announced that as part of the de-coupling it was moving its Day Ahead auction to 9:50am rather than the current 11:00am auction. EPEX the second Day Ahead auction that currently runs in conjunction with the Nord Pool auction has announced on the 4 November that their auction will move to gate closure at 9:20am and results published at 9:30. We are working with the Regulators ahead of 2021 to ensure we can accommodate