• As the winter presses on, we’re taking a look at how the Triad season is shaping up so far in this week’s Market Pulse. Triads are the 3x highest transmission system demand periods (net of embedded generation). These are important sources of revenue for some embedded generators, to learn more see our recent blog. To date, the two highest demand periods for this triad season have been 4th Nov at 5pm (41,197 MW) and 16th Nov also at 5pm (39,150 MW). NOTE: These numbers are taken from ELEXON, who use settlement metering from the SAA, which may differ marginally from the Statement of Use of System Charging Methodology (chapter 4). What do both these days have in common? Interesting, the answer is not that much. Here is a quick comparison of both days: We are too early in the triad season to conclude much from this data. However, there are some interesting early points of note. You can see from the data above that on the 4th we had both low wind and temperatures: ripe conditions for a triad as low temperatures increase demand and the low winds also stop demand being netted off from embedded generation. Demand on the 16th was quite a bit lower with higher

  • We welcome the commitment from the Prime Minister and his Government to set the Green Revolution agenda to deliver net zero and 'build back better'. We are glad to see the Government is throwing its weight behind sustainable energy and transport. The Government has stated that by 2030 all new cars and vans will be electric or hybrid vehicles (till 2035), supported by the required EV charging infrastructure. Limejump is a UK leader in battery storage and we are excited to see more batteries join the Grid through electric vehicles. The Government stated that it wants the UK to have enough offshore wind capacity to power every home in the UK. Increasing wind generation underscores the requirement for flexible generation and storage when it is not windy. Limejump wants to see further support for distributed onshore renewables alongside offshore wind; this should allow for a more resilient Grid that is less exposed to weather patterns and transmission constraints. Limejump is a strong supporter of evolving technologies and are excited to see what the Government's £500m investment in hydrogen will deliver. Hydrogen technology could be a key lever for the UK to decarbonise the energy sector more quickly. This 10 Point Plan is a starting point

  • Over forecasting and under delivering may be a thing of the past for suppliers with the help of AI and machine learning Rain or shine, weather is a constant topic of conversation. Whether we’re eager for predictions of a sunny weekend to be spot on, or hoping that forecasted rain never comes, it’s fair to say that weather forecasts have an impact on our lives and behaviour. Nowhere is this more true than in the renewable energy sector, where accurate forecasting has an important role to play. Many forms of renewable energy are reliant on particular weather conditions, so being able to predict these, and therefore production levels, is vital. At the moment, renewable energy sources make up around 26% of the world’s electricity, but this share is expected to grow to 30% by 2024 and global supply of renewable electricity could expand by up to 50% in the next five years. As we become increasingly reliant on renewable power, forecasting becomes only more important in predicting supply and therefore balancing demand. Failure to forecast production accurately can lead to unusual spikes and dips in price for suppliers and so these are carefully tracked using forecast accuracy metrics which allow system operators to

  • Brexit Update As you know we are due to leave the EU on the 1 January 2021 and it stands this is likely to be without reaching a deal. So, what does this all mean for the power market? Trading on the interconnectors with Europe is currently ‘coupled’ which means that transnational electricity trading and the necessary transport capacities are connected via so called implicit auctions. This ensures the most efficient use of interconnectors as energy flows to the country with the highest price. When GB leaves the EU, these markets will become de-coupled so electricity and capacity will be traded separately. This is likely to lead to more volatile market prices and opportunities to sell when prices are high. On 20 October one of the Power Exchanges, Nord Pool, announced that as part of the de-coupling it was moving its Day Ahead auction to 9:50am rather than the current 11:00am auction. EPEX the second Day Ahead auction that currently runs in conjunction with the Nord Pool auction has announced on the 4 November that their auction will move to gate closure at 9:20am and results published at 9:30. We are working with the Regulators ahead of 2021 to ensure we can accommodate

  • ANCILLARY SERVICES We split the ancillary services by which technology can participate. Battery related ancillary services National Grid and energy companies alike have had a busy Q3 with new products released and trials taking part. National Grid are working towards their goal of carbon free operation of the grid by 2025, which requires a re-think of existing products. Limejump are excited to see this ambitious target and will do everything possible to support National Grid in this endeavour. Key for us were: • The much awaited release of Dynamic Containment • Reserve Storage in the BM trial Dynamic Containment Dynamic Containment went live on October 1st (but we include in this review) to much fanfare from industry. This is the premium frequency product National Grid tenders for. It is faster acting than dynamic FFR, with a response required at a subsecond level. See our blog post here on dynamic containment. Below we can see there are 6 companies competing and prices have converged around the £17/MW/hr level.   Limejump is working towards our Dynamic Containment product and expects to be able to offer this to customers in the near future. Reserve Storage in the BM trial National Grid ran phases 2 and 3 of their reserve from storage in the BM trial in Q3

  • FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Power prices have had one heck of a ride this year! We saw low prices in H1, due to healthy gas supply levels (LNG flows were strong and storage high), strong renewable output and a covid related reduction in demand. See our H1 report here for more information. Since H1 we have seen prices rise, with the Summer-21 contract increasing in value a whopping 16% over August alone. This is good news for our PPA customers looking to lock in contracts as it will mean they receive more for the same power. What were the key drivers affecting price action over the quarter? The European Union looking to tighten carbon policy Low renewable output Low nuclear availability Carbon Carbon has been at the forefront of many power traders minds over the quarter, with good correlation between the two commodities. Below we chart Winter-20 in power and the December-20 carbon contract. A mild winter and higher than expected nuclear output drove. The correlation between the two should perhaps be unsurprising, at least for the UK, given that gas fired generation is the marginal price setter (and these generators must buy European carbon credits to offset their emissions if they are over 20

  • This week we saw National Grid issue two Electricity Margin Notifications, having not issued one since 2016. Let’s remind ourselves also that only back in September National Grid also issued Electricity Capacity Market Notice. But what do all these notifications mean? Both notifications serve largely the same purpose and that is to tell the market that the Electricity Control Centre do not expect generation to meet demand (after accounting for margin National Grid are required to hold). The key difference being Electricity Margin Notifications are typically issued further in advance. Why were they issued this week? This week we had the first cold snap which increased power demand, coupled with incredibly low wind over the evening peak period. See below the temperature and wind generation for the last 7 days. What was the impact on the market? Both notifications were ultimately cancelled by National Grid, but that didn’t stop prices jumping. National Grid appear to be using these notifications more liberally as a signal to the market so we expect to see more this winter.  Our 24/7 trading team are consistently monitoring the market for opportunities such as the above where we can capitalise on them on behalf of our customers, whilst ensuring security of

  • About Hilldino   Hilldino LLP’s approach to wind investment stands out in the market. Its ‘Venture Power’ offering is built on the firm, technology grounded, belief that power is better consumed as close to point of generation as possible. This has led the entrepreneurial firm to build a strong portfolio of investments in domestic-scale local energy generation, local storage and local micro-grids since 2014. Successful serial entrepreneur Duncan Hilleary and Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and investor Albert Scardino have led the outfit to a build a successful business built on strong local generation benefits in the Scottish islands. Duncan and Albert have been supported by a team of experts, with experienced local development manager Henrik Micski at Ecodyn taking a hands-on role with many of the larger installs and subsequent PPA management.   The start of a long-term partnership In 2018 Hilldino partnered with Limejump to deliver a PPA for nine of its wind turbines. Limejump’s offering makes the day-to-day operational management of Hilldino’s PPA portfolio – and its associated revenues – straight forward and easy. This is especially important to the Hilldino team as the turbine portfolio is split across nine distinctly different island locations, with five turbines spread across the Isle of Lewis communities,

  • Alongside the colder climate, seasonal plans and parties, matching pyjamas and Christmas shopping, November to March is the only time for the UK energy industry to experience the three identified National Grid periods known as Triads. We have prepared this article as a guide for what to expect, and what Limejump has prepared in relation to these occurrences.   What are Triads? Triads are the three half-hour settlement periods with the highest system demand between November and February, separated by at least ten days. National Grid uses these specific Triad days to determine TNUoS charges for customers with half-hourly metering (typically large or medium industrial and commercial customers and smaller generators).   What is the consequence of a Triad period? It is costly for sites to consume electricity during a Triad period. For sites producing electricity over a Triad period, National Grid pays these sites additional monies. Thus, National Grid are trying to incentivise less peak demand/more generation during Winter.   When do the Triads occur? Triads typically occur during winter evenings, between 16.30 and 18.30, when industrial demand coincides with residential energy requirements. National Grid does not indicate Triads in advance. However, with our advanced analytical forecasting ability, we can provide alerts when these price critical times may