• We have seen some very high prices (£200/MWh) in the prompt market this week, due to a high pressure weather system resulting in temperatures plummeting and wind generation crashing to well below forecasted levels. Last week we saw national wind generation almost reach 15GW, whereas this week,  generation has been as low as 0.25GW.     This has combined with temperatures far below seasonal expectation which has resulted in an increased demand for power. When wind generation is this low it increases reliance on CCGT’s and national de-rated capacity is stretched very thinly. The de-rated margin is the amount of excess supply above peak demand. On Monday evening the de-rated margin was only 2GW, compared to almost 15GW a week ago. This has meant that demand has been driving market prices, and whenever there has been stronger than expected demand there has been a resultant spike in prices. We have seen system prices as high as £1971/MWh during the evening peak of the 12th, as a result of the stress the system has been under. Day Ahead spreads have also seen an impressive increase due to these lower winds, where the highest price minus the lowest price on the 13th and 14th was

  • Exciting new record for the lowest ever carbon intensity on the National Grid  On Monday, the UK set an exciting new record for the lowest ever carbon intensity on the National Grid at 39gCO2/kWh. This was due to very high winds of over 14GW combined with high solar generation, accounting for 41% and 23% of the generation mix around lunchtime respectively. Demand is always lower on a Bank Holiday which meant there was less pressure on the system. This is a great sign of the progress the UK is making in their goal of reaching net zero by 2050.      As encouraging as this is, it is important to note that this was not the greenest day on record, (24th May 2020), because the average carbon intensity of the day was higher than the previous record due to solar generation ramping down in the evening resulting in gas-fired generation accounting for about a third of generation in the evening. This highlights the importance of gas and flexible generation assets in enabling our transition to a 100% renewable energy system. Renewable generation is still too intermittent to fully support UK power supply and the National Grid still needs the support of peaking generation such as batteries and gas peakers.    Volatile wind

  • Nestled in the Welsh countryside, traditional farming is meeting cutting-edge renewable energy technology in one extended family. Commentary from Emma James, Business Development Manager at Limejump. UK farmers have always been quick to find smart, innovative ways to generate income, by adopting new farming techniques, making the very best use of technology and by diversifying their land use. Over the past 20 years, farmers have fully embraced renewable energy generation right across the technology spectrum, including wind, anaerobic digestion, hydro, CHP and solar.  As a result, the UK’s farming community has grown to be important contributors to the UK’s energy mix, through routes such as Limejump’s asset optimisation and Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) offerings. Through PPAs – buying the electricity from renewable generators– Limejump is helping hundreds of farmers across the UK to maximise the value of their renewable assets, whilst also giving them access to the same market opportunities and revenue streams as large power stations. Rhys Anwyl, a farmer in Gwynedd, North Wales, is one such customer. Rhys farms 100 cattle and 500 welsh mountain sheep at Erw Las Farm and owns a separate 80-acre smallholding at Rhiw Goch which is home to their solar-powered holiday lets. The Anwyl family have been at the

  • Renewable generation was the driving force behind market conditions this week with high levels of wind generation followed by high levels of solar. Over the weekend, wind ramped up to above 10GW, reaching as high as 14GW on Sunday. These high levels of wind resulted in National Grid bidding off up to 3GW of wind generation to manage the system. Similar to how low levels of generation cause price spikes such as those we saw in January 2021, high levels of generation can cause price crashes. On the 28th and 29th of March, there were 12 settlement periods where the System Price dropped below £0/MWh. Negative System Prices means that generators have to pay GBP/MWh for anything that is generated during that settlement period. This occurs when generation is too high and there is a risk of the frequency of the system reaching 50.5Hz, which is when the system becomes unstable. Day Ahead prices are also affected by high levels of generation, with prices dropping below £9/MWh at settlement period 9 on the 29th of March.    We witnessed strong solar performances for the first time this year, with generation reaching a peak of 7.5GW on Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday saw 56%

  • We have witnessed quite a calm week in the prompt U.K. power market. Healthy levels of wind and solar generation, combined with a solid base of Nuclear resulted in a well-balanced system. We have noticed that the shift in seasons to Spring is starting to have an impact on the market. The evening demand peak is slightly later now, closer to 7pm, due to milder weather. There is also a slight increase in imbalance volume and intra day volatility due to the increase in generation from wind and solar, see graph below. Wind and Solar are more intermittent and produce varying levels of supply, which can crash or spike at any moment creating more of an effect on imbalance volumes and therefore market price. In terms of the forward market, we have seen considerable volatility, with a drop and then a rise in the UK Baseload Summer-21, leading to Wednesday’s prices peaking above last week's high of £56.25/MWh. This has been brilliant for our PPA generators who have locked in these high prices during these volatile conditions. A £1 move in the baseload forward price can be worth over £10,000/year for some generators. Carbon prices have dropped slightly by just over

  • Another exciting week in the energy world. On Monday, there was a new high for the UK Baseload Summer-21. This price surpassed the previous peak achieved in January when  there were concerns in the UK market regarding the supply of gas due to concurrent cold snaps in Europe and Asia. This has been great news for customers as Limejump ensured that both new and existing customers took full advantage of the price peak, utilising our insight and agility to get the best price for customers and fixing in their power prices - adding 105MW to the platform.   Carbon keeps on climbing This price spike has correlated with carbon prices, which continue to break price records. These spikes continue to be driven without any fundamental factors influencing the price. It will be interesting to watch how this pans out and whether these high prices will hold. Metering behind the boundary point has been approved We welcome the recent approval of P375, metering behind the boundary point, which comes into force in June 2022. This mod enables the full potential of Virtual Lead Parties (VLPs), but only from June 2022. Limejump plans to capitalise on VLP from the inception of P375 when the value of VLP will

  • Last weekend, a combination of cold temperatures and low winds saw system prices sky rocket to £725/MWh. Wind generation was around 2GW, whereas the seasonal norm is closer to 10GW, creating market volatility.   Since the weekend, wind has been ramping up, reaching highs of 15GW, which led to suppressed prices for the week. The stormy weather in the early hours of Thursday morning resulted in negative system prices of -£61/MWh. Further reductions on the reliance of coal Drax has announced an end to their coal generation with units 5 and 6, both 645MW, no longer operating in wholesale dispatch by the end of the month. These power plants are still available, and are still offered in the Balancing Mechanism (on Wednesday 10th March at £4000/MW). Drax announced that the formal closure of these plants will occur on September 2022, at the end of their existing Capacity Market Obligations. Drax planned to turn these units into Europe’s biggest Gas plants, but have since abandoned this plan following opposition from environmental groups. This will reduce the maximum wholesale availability of Coal to only 4GW (Ratcliffe-on-Soar 1 to 4 and West Burton 1 to 5) by the end of March. These closures are further accelerating the

  • T-4 2024/25 Capacity Market Auction out-turned at £18/kW which is the highest T-4 price since the 2016 Prequalification which was £22.5/kWThe auction saw 40.8GW awarded a contract out of the 52GW entering the auction. Existing generation, existing interconnectors, and new interconnectors who had previous taken a contract, accounted for 90% of the volume awarded. Of the remaining 10%, 4.3% (1.7GW) went to New Build generation which was split 80% gas and 20% renewable generation. The majority of gas related to 3 Drax OCGTs (0.9GW). 20 new batteries took a contract (none of the 5-hour duration batteries who prequalified).  Demand Side Response accounted for 2.6% (1.1GW) of awarded volume over 136 units, with the majority being unproven. The remaining volume was won by the new Viking Interconnector with Denmark (0.7GW) and a refurbishment at the Connah’s Quay power station (0.7GW). Interestingly, the existing generation not taking a contract this year, but who did the previous year, included three nuclear power stations (Dungeness B, Heysham 2 and Torness) which accounted for 1.5GW. Similarly, first Hydro’s pump storage at Dinorwig Unit 1 and two gas power stations (Keadby 1 and Rocksavage) totaling 1.7GW did not take a contract this year but did in the previous

  • It has been a fairly volatile week, this is due to demand performing slightly above forecast, however, the main cause has been the significant ramp down in wind generation. In comparison, last week’s wind generation reached as high as 14GW, at times this week it crashed to just 0.5GW. Wind Generation 24/2 - 4/3 There were also trips at Carrington and Ratcliff Coal plants leading to a further reduction in supply. In contrast, demand has also been slightly overperforming due to a drop in temperatures and a reduction in solar generation. Transmission system demand has been higher this week due to continuous overcast conditions. These conditions led to a reduction in solar generation with a knock on effect on demand, as a large amount of solar is embedded generation. Embedded generation acts as a demand off-set for National Grid forecasting as the Grid does not have sight of this generation. Therefore, a reduction in solar generation leads to an increased demand on other generation and an increased reliance on National Grid. This has led to daily price spikes, notably on Wednesday 3rd March, where System Price peaked at £900/MW.   The Decoupling of EPEX and Nordpool is still causing issues, with these markets acting